An Examination of the Causes of the Failure of Iran’s Fifth Development Plan from the Perspective of Public Policy Implementation Research

Abstract

The present study aimed to identify and explain the causes of the failure of the Fifth Development Plan of the Islamic Republic of Iran from the perspective of public policy implementation research. The study adopted a qualitative case-study design. Data were collected through the examination of legal and policy documents related to the Fifth Development Plan and semi-structured interviews with government managers, executive policymakers, experts, university faculty members, and economic actors. Participants were selected through purposive and snowball sampling, and the interviews continued until theoretical saturation was achieved. In total, eighteen individuals participated in the interviews. The interview data were analyzed using Braun and Clarke’s six-stage thematic analysis method. Following coding, review, and categorization, forty-nine subsidiary themes were organized into six main themes. The findings indicated that the failure of the Fifth Development Plan resulted from the interaction of structural, institutional, economic, temporal, and political factors. Internal and external contextual conditions, including conflict between the government and parliament, the multiplicity of decision-making centers, international sanctions, fluctuations in oil revenues, and economic instability, substantially reduced the implementation capacity of the Plan. In addition, the inconsistency between the five-year policy horizon and political cycles, inadequate foresight, weak alignment between the Plan and annual budgets, the absence of clear financing mechanisms, and the lack of clearly designated executive authorities weakened accountability and administrative coordination. The multiplicity and dispersion of objectives, excessive comprehensiveness, idealistic goal setting, conceptual ambiguity, and the weakness of measurable indicators further widened the gap between the Plan’s ambitions and the country’s actual capacities. Institutional disagreements and the absence of shared ownership also undermined the political will and commitment required for comprehensive implementation. Accordingly, the failure of the Fifth Development Plan should be understood not merely as a consequence of poor executive performance, but as the result of inadequate design for implementation. Reforming development planning requires limiting the number of objectives, establishing clear priorities, creating a binding relationship between development plans and annual budgets, assigning specific executive responsibility, preparing alternative scenarios, and securing political consensus before the final approval of development plans.