Explaining the Effects of Social, Cultural, and Political Factors on Economic Performance and Welfare in Iran

Abstract

This study aimed to explain and empirically validate the effects of social, cultural, and political factors on welfare in Iran, with particular emphasis on the mediating role of economic performance and the development of an integrated model appropriate to the Iranian context. This applied study employed an exploratory sequential mixed-methods design within a pragmatic paradigm. In the qualitative phase, 20 senior economic managers, social welfare managers, government policymakers, and academic experts were selected purposively until theoretical saturation. Semi-structured interview data were analyzed through thematic analysis using NVivo, yielding 517 initial codes, 189 basic themes, 25 main categories, and five core themes. In the quantitative phase, 390 valid questionnaires were analyzed from a population of approximately 5,000 relevant managers, academics, researchers, experts, and specialists. A 126-item researcher-developed questionnaire measured social, cultural, and political factors, economic performance, and welfare. Content and construct validity were examined through expert assessment and confirmatory factor analysis, while reliability was evaluated using Cronbach’s alpha and construct reliability indices. Data were analyzed using SPSS and AMOS, and hypotheses were tested through structural equation modeling. Structural equation modeling demonstrated that social factors (β = 0.67), political factors (β = 0.59), and cultural factors (β = 0.52) exerted positive and statistically significant effects on economic performance, with social factors showing the strongest effect. Economic performance significantly predicted welfare (β = 0.81). Collectively, social, cultural, and political factors explained 73% of the variance in economic performance, while economic performance explained 66% of the variance in welfare. Significant indirect effects on welfare through economic performance were observed for social (β = 0.54), political (β = 0.48), and cultural factors (β = 0.42), confirming the mediating role of economic performance. Sustainable welfare in Iran depends on the coordinated strengthening of social capacities, development-oriented cultural orientations, effective political governance, and economic performance. The findings indicate that welfare should not be conceptualized solely as an outcome of economic policy; rather, it emerges from the systematic interaction of social, cultural, political, institutional, and economic infrastructures, with economic performance functioning as a central transmission mechanism.