The Examination of the Islamic Republic's Inclination towards Alliance with Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict and its Impact on Iran's Strategic Relations with Azerbaijan

Abstract

The unresolved conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh is one of the most concerning unresolved conflicts in the Caucasus region, both because it involves two independent countries and because the three main regional powers—Russia, Turkey, and Iran—all have different stances. This situation undermines security across the Caucasus and the Black Sea region, polarizing countries and their allies, and creating a security vacuum that encourages the proliferation of transnational security challenges. Besides the severe security risks the region may face, the South Caucasus has already experienced significant economic pressure due to war and, primarily, the extensive sanctions against Russia. The South Caucasus has a long history of conflicts and varying degrees of Russian dominance, which may now persist and even worsen. However, there is also the possibility that the shock of Russia's actions in Ukraine and the shift in the international order may alter historical behavioral patterns. Research findings indicate that Russia and Iran are considered Armenian allies, while Turkey and Israel support Azerbaijan. Russia remains a major stakeholder in the region concerning the conflict. Historically, Moscow has been linked to the conflicts due to the shared heritage of the Soviet Union. The Russians are also primarily credited by Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh for their continuous involvement in various peace processes in an attempt to find a peaceful solution. Turkey has a strong relationship with its Turkic brothers in Azerbaijan and views it as a gateway to the region. This war has significantly changed the balance of power in the region. While Azerbaijan now clearly dominates the regional political and military scene, Armenia's power and influence have been severely weakened.